*************************************************************************** From john.hunter@utas.edu.au Fri Jan 16 11:39:27 2004 To: Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Subject: Request for preprint or reprint Dear Professor Morner, In your recent paper, "New perspectives for the future of the Maldives" (Morner, Tooley and Possnert, 2004, Global and Planetary Change, 40, 177-182), you refer to the following paper: Morner, N.-A., 2003b. No flooding of the Maldives. Submitted. If this paper has now been published, could you please give me the full reference? Otherwise, I would be glad if you would send me a copy of the paper. Regards, John Hunter *************************************************************************** From john.hunter@utas.edu.au Thu Feb 5 15:05:23 2004 To: Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Subject: Request for preprint or reprint (fwd) Dear Professor Morner, I wonder if you did not receive my earlier email and so am attaching it to this one. It is quite important that I have a copy of your refeenced paper "Morner, N.-A., 2003b. No flooding of the Maldives" which refers to observations made by tide gauges in the Maldives, which apparently show "a total absence of any rising secular trend". I would be glad if you would help me with this request. Regards, John Hunter ---------- Forwarded message ---------- Date: Fri, 16 Jan 2004 11:38:54 +1100 (EST) From: john.hunter@utas.edu.au To: Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Cc: john.hunter@utas.edu.au Subject: Request for preprint or reprint Dear Professor Morner, In your recent paper, "New perspectives for the future of the Maldives" (Morner, Tooley and Possnert, 2004, Global and Planetary Change, 40, 177-182), you refer to the following paper: Morner, N.-A., 2003b. No flooding of the Maldives. Submitted. If this paper has now been published, could you please give me the full reference? Otherwise, I would be glad if you would send me a copy of the paper. Regards, John Hunter *************************************************************************** From Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Fri Feb 6 09:35:41 2004 To: john.hunter@utas.edu.au Subject: Re: Request for preprint or reprint (fwd) Dear John, The paper you ask for in not yet accepted. But, no doubts, there is a total absence of any rising trend. As soon as I get an acceptance, I am ready to distribute a preprint. best wishes "Niklas"* *************************************************************************** From john.hunter@utas.edu.au Thu Sep 16 11:48:26 2004 To: Nils-Axel Morner Subject: Re: Request for preprint or reprint (fwd) Dear Professor Morner, In February, I requested a copy of your submitted paper: Morner, N.-A., 2003b. No flooding of the Maldives. Submitted. which you cited in: Morner, Tooley and Possnert, 2004, Global and Planetary Change, 40, 177-182 At the time (5 February) you replied: >> The paper you ask for in not yet accepted. But, no doubts, >> there is a total absence of any rising trend. As soon as I >> get an acceptance, I am ready to distribute a preprint. I wonder if your paper has now been accepted and whether you can now provide me with a preprint? This is quite important as I have analysed tidal records from the Maldives and get the following trends (relative to the land and with no atmospheric adjustment): 454002.metdata (GAN II): 6.9 +/- 1.6 mm/year 454011.rlrdata (MALE-B, HULULE): 3.4 +/- 1.7 mm/year 454021.metdata (HANIMAADHOO): 2.8 +/- 0.8 mm/year where the data is from PSMSL and the uncertainties are indicated by +/- 1 standard deviation. All trends are at least two standard deviations from zero, so significantly positive at the 97.5% level. Can you explain the discrepancy between these results and your statement that "there is a total absence of any rising trend"? Regards, John Hunter *************************************************************************** From Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Fri Sep 17 09:24:22 2004 To: john.hunter@utas.edu.au Subject: Re: Request for preprint or reprint (fwd) Dear John, Sorry for not sending reprints. In older days with free mailing, I sent out lots (maby hundreds) of reprints every day. Now I have stoppt doing so, not only because of mailing costs but also because of the simple efords of copying or down-loading. Your tide gauge values from the Maldives are most surprising. They are not even close to anything I have from the same sites. For me, there is a total lack of any rising trend over the last 10-15 years. Besides, morphology give firm indication of insignificant changes since the -1970 sea level fall. Of course, I become curious about how you have arrived at your values - and I now understands why you have the same feeling for my records. best wishes........"Niklas" Documentation (sea level, from 1995): The INQUA Commission - www.pog.su.se/sea Authors homepage - www.pog.su.se. Morner, N.-A., 2004. Changing Sea Levels. In: Encyclopedia of Coastal Science (M. Schwartz, Ed.), p. 284-288. Morner, N.-A., 2004. The Maldives Project: a future free from sea level flooding. Contemprary South Asia, 13 (2), p. 149-155. Morner, N.-A., 2004. Estimating future sea level changes. Global Planet. Change, 40, 49-54. Morner, N.-A., Tooley, M. & Possnert, G., 2004. New perspectives for the future of the Maldives. Global Planet. Change, 40, 177-182. Morner, N.-A., 2002. Livello dei mari e clima (Sea Level Changes and Climate). Nuova Secondaria, 10/2002, p. 43-45. Morner, N.-A., 2001. Global and local sea level changes: the interaction of multiple-parametres (hydrosphre, cryosphere, lithosphere, ocean dynamics and climate). Schr. Deutschen Geol. Gesellschaft, 14, 3-4. Morner, N.-A., 2000. Sea level changes in western Europe. Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Autumn 2000 Ed., p. 31-36, ICG Publ. Ltd. Morner, N.-A., 2000. Sea level changes and coastal dynamics in the Indian Ocean. Integrated Coastal Zone Management, Spring 2000 Ed., p. 17-20, ICG Publ. Ltd. Morner, N.-A., 1999. Sea level and climate. Rapid regressions at local warm phases. Quaternary International, 60, 75-82. Morner, N.-A., 1996. Rapid changes in coastal sea level. J. Coastal Res., 12, 797-800. Morner, N.-A., 1996. Sea Level Variability. Z. Geomorphology N.S., 102, p. 223-232. Morner, N.-A., 1995. Earth rotation, ocean circulation and paleoclimate. GeoJournal, 37, 419-430. Morner, N.-A., 1995. Recorded sea level variability in the Holocene and expected future changes. In: Climatic Change: Impacts on Coastal Habitation (D. Eisma, Ed.), pp. 17-28. Morner, N.-A., 1995. Sea Level and Climate - The decadal-to-century signals. J. Coastal Res., Sp. I. 17, 261-268. Plus numerous sea level papers in the period 1969-1995. See also: Lars Mortensen, 2004; Dome Day Called Off, TV-documentary, Danish TV, Copenhagen. *************************************************************************** From john.hunter@utas.edu.au Fri Sep 17 09:37:10 2004 To: Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Subject: Re: Request for preprint or reprint (fwd) Dear Niklas, Thank you for your reply, but I still do not know how to get a copy of your paper cited as "Morner, N.-A., 2003b. No flooding of the Maldives. Submitted." in Morner, Tooley and Possnert, 2004 (Global and Planetary Change, 40, 177-182). Has it been renamed as "Morner, N.-A., 2004. The Maldives Project: a future free from sea level flooding. Contemprary South Asia, 13 (2), p. 149-155.", or has it not yet been accepted for publication? Regards, John Hunter *************************************************************************** From Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Mon Sep 20 09:43:02 2004 To: john.hunter@utas.edu.au Subject: Re: Request for preprint or reprint (fwd) Dear John, Yes, it is unbelivably delaied. Far beyond all my expectations when I put in the reference "submitted". If I would have known about the time delay, I would, of course, not have included it. Still, in the records themselves, there are no traces of any rise, not even the slightest rise. Your values are - for me - "unbelivable". Have you added some "correction" factor to the pure tide gauge records? At any rate, let's keep in touch. An let's keep science in the centre. There is far to much pro and con animosity in the world. best wishes.........Niklas *************************************************************************** From john.hunter@utas.edu.au Mon Sep 20 13:06:22 2004 To: Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Subject: Re: Request for preprint or reprint (fwd) Dear Niklas, Attached are the files, downloaded from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) in January 2004. Please tell me what trends you deduce from them. Regards, John Hunter (Following files were attached: 454002.metdata, 454011.rlrdata, 454021.metdata) *************************************************************************** From john.hunter@utas.edu.au Wed Nov 10 10:31:24 2004 To: Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Subject: Sea level rise in the Maldives Dear Niklas, You may recall that on 20 September I sent you three tide gauge records from the Maldives, downloaded from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) in January 2004. I asked you to tell me the trends that you deduced from them, given your statement that "there is a total absence of any rising trend" in Morner et al., 2004 (Global and Planetary Change, 40, 177-182). I have had no reply. I note that you repeat this claim in "The Impacts of Climate Change; an Appraisal for the Future" (International Policy Network, 2004), where you cite a reference "13", which is given as "Morner 2003b" (page 65 of that report), but which DOES NOT appear in the reference list (page 72 of that report). I would be glad if you would explain why you continue to make this (now unreferenced) claim, given that it may be shown to be quite untrue if you simply fit linear trends to the data I provided, which indicate the following rates of rise (relative to the land and with no atmospheric adjustment): 454002.metdata (GAN II): 6.9 +/- 1.6 mm/year 454011.rlrdata (MALE-B, HULULE): 3.4 +/- 1.7 mm/year 454021.metdata (HANIMAADHOO): 2.8 +/- 0.8 mm/year where the uncertainties are indicated by +/- 1 standard deviation. You will note that these are significantly larger than the 1-2 mm/year quoted by the IPCC for global average sea level rise for the 20th century, which you seem to question. Regards, John Hunter *************************************************************************** From Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Thu Nov 11 11:29:27 2004 To: john.hunter@utas.edu.au Subject: Re: Sea level rise in the Maldives Dear John, Sorry not to have been able to work on this issue for a long time. I have simply been toatlly barried in a PhD-thesis that had to be pushed by extress for the termination of a visa. Now, I am on my way out in the field. After that I have 1 day before I go to London. This is the normal rush in my life. I have your files for work, but when I opened the files they were very hard to read - maybe because I am using Mac. So, they deserved much attension before workable. That's why I put them "a side". I am totally amased by the figures you give in your mail. What concerns the IPN-report, I have not checked the finally printed version yet. But you are right, I think my final reference list may be missing or not fully included. I was very keen this time to update the reference list and not include the one "submitted". But whatever, our figures differs tremendeously. There must be some explanation and/or mistake - somewhere. best wishes........Niklas *************************************************************************** From john.hunter@utas.edu.au Wed Dec 1 18:39:35 2004 To: Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Subject: Sea level rise in the Maldives Dear Niklas, Your statement that "there is a total absence of any rising trend" in Morner et al., 2004 (Global and Planetary Change, 40, 177-182) appears even more strange now that I see that you included Singh et al. (2001, Marine Geodesy, 24, 209-218) in the References section of your paper. Singh et al. quite clearly indicate that, for sea level records from Gan (1988-1998) and Male (1991-1998), the rates of rise of sea level are 4.7 and 5.2 mm/year, respectively. These are consistent with my own estimates of 6.9 +/- 1.6 and 3.4 +/- 1.7 mm/year, respectively, for slighter longer records extending to 2000. Is it not time that you retract your statement that "there is a total absence of any rising trend"? Regards, John Hunter *************************************************************************** From Nils-Axel.Morner@pog.su.se Mon Dec 6 23:33:42 2004 To: john.hunter@utas.edu.au Subject: Re: Sea level rise in the Maldives Dear John, I have been buisy as ever on other matters. However, it is easy to answer some of your points. (1) one don not make trens studies on short time series (2) Singh et al. (2001) is a very poor paper. (3) the extended time series do not suppott their "trends" (4) instead, we see rised and falls of obvious oceanographic origin (5) we also see ENSO events that destort "trends" (6) in Gan we also see effects of the new cause-way and coastal morphology fails to record any rising trend. I hope soon to have time to return to the analysis in details, and will then be in the position to provide a full answer (especially if the original paper finally will go to print). best wishes....Niklas *************************************************************************** At 18 Nov. 2005: still no "full answer" from Morner ...... ***************************************************************************